PORTFOLIO COMPARISON / ONE VARIABLE

Permanent Portfolio Backtest

Backtest a Permanent Portfolio using an explicit 25% US equity, long Treasury, Treasury-bill and gold ETF proxy.

Harry BrowneClassic all-season allocationEqual-weight economic-regime sleevesHistorical result available

HISTORICAL BACKTEST RESULT

60% SPY / 40% AGG vs Permanent Portfolio

60% SPY / 40% AGG Permanent Portfolio
2016-08-23 → 2026-07-31 · 2492 common sessions
60% SPY / 40% AGG$22,7528.6% annualized · -21.3% max drawdown
Permanent Portfolio$13,5165.0% annualized · -19.8% max drawdown

Historical calculation from cached Marketstack EOD data. Annual rebalancing, $10,000 initial value, nominal USD before fees and taxes. The disclosed portfolio definitions—not an AI model—produce the result.

RUN THIS PORTFOLIO

Change the rule, then compare the new result.

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WHAT TO COMPARE

Read the trade-off as a system.

  1. 01Ending value
  2. 02Maximum drawdown
  3. 03Asset contribution
  4. 04Recovery path

WHEN TO LOOK

Locate where the difference appeared.

First shared ETF observation onwardInflation shocksEquity stressRising-rate periods

A useful comparison shows whether an advantage was broad or created by one unusually favorable period. Review the portfolio backtest methodology to understand how the same rules are applied across a shared data window.

PORTFOLIO RULE / DISCLOSED IMPLEMENTATION

Four-sleeve ETF proxy

This is a liquid ETF implementation of the four-asset allocation, not a claim that ETF performance reproduces every historical Permanent Portfolio result.

VTIVanguard Total Stock Market ETFVanguard Total Stock Market ETFUS equity ETFTracks a broad basket of publicly traded US companies.25%US total stock market
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong-term Treasury ETFHolds US Treasury bonds with maturities of twenty years or more.25%Long-term Treasuries
SHYiShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETFShort-term Treasury ETFHolds short-duration US Treasury bonds.25%Treasury bills / cash proxy
GLDSPDR Gold SharesSPDR Gold SharesGold ETFA listed fund designed to reflect the price of physical gold, before fund costs.25%Gold

REBALANCINGAnnual rebalancing to four equal 25% sleeves.

DATA WINDOWThe effective window begins at the first shared EOD date for all selected ETF proxies.

STRATEGY CONTEXT

What this portfolio strategy means.

A short definition, the reason investors return to it, and the historical context behind the name. It is context for a backtest—not an investment recommendation.

What it is

The Permanent Portfolio is a four-way allocation: US equities, long-term Treasuries, short-term Treasuries or cash, and gold at 25% each in this ETF implementation. Its design assumes that different assets may help in different economic conditions. The visible portfolio is a liquid modern proxy, not a recreation of every historical instrument used by earlier versions.

Why investors use it

Investors use the framework when they value economic diversification and want a simple, fixed rule rather than tactical forecasts. Its appeal is the attempt to balance growth assets with nominal safety and inflation-sensitive exposure. The trade-off is equally important: a quarter of the portfolio may sit in assets that lag strongly during a particular equity-led market, and long Treasuries bring material duration risk.

Historical context

The strategy is associated with Harry Browne, who presented the idea as a way to own assets for prosperity, recession, inflation, and deflation without predicting which regime arrives next. It later became a durable reference point in all-weather portfolio discussions. The original concept predates modern ETFs, so this page labels its VTI, TLT, SHY, and GLD portfolio as a disclosed proxy rather than an exact historical reconstruction.