PORTFOLIO COMPARISON / ONE VARIABLE

Golden Butterfly Portfolio Backtest

Backtest a Golden Butterfly Portfolio using a disclosed US ETF proxy: stocks, small value, long Treasuries, short Treasuries and gold at 20% each.

PortfolioCharts frameworkWell-known permanent-style allocationEqual-weight stocks, bonds and goldHistorical result available

HISTORICAL BACKTEST RESULT

60% SPY / 40% AGG vs Golden Butterfly

60% SPY / 40% AGG Golden Butterfly
2016-08-23 → 2026-07-31 · 2492 common sessions
60% SPY / 40% AGG$22,7528.6% annualized · -21.3% max drawdown
Golden Butterfly$15,1397.0% annualized · -19.8% max drawdown

Historical calculation from cached Marketstack EOD data. Annual rebalancing, $10,000 initial value, nominal USD before fees and taxes. The disclosed portfolio definitions—not an AI model—produce the result.

RUN THIS PORTFOLIO

Change the rule, then compare the new result.

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WHAT TO COMPARE

Read the trade-off as a system.

  1. 01Ending value
  2. 02Maximum drawdown
  3. 03Sleeve contribution
  4. 04Start-date sensitivity

WHEN TO LOOK

Locate where the difference appeared.

First shared ETF observation onwardRate shocksEquity drawdownsGold-led periods

A useful comparison shows whether an advantage was broad or created by one unusually favorable period. Review the portfolio backtest methodology to understand how the same rules are applied across a shared data window.

PORTFOLIO RULE / DISCLOSED IMPLEMENTATION

Five-sleeve ETF proxy

The ETF choices are disclosed proxies for an allocation concept. A different small-value or cash proxy can change the result.

VTIVanguard Total Stock Market ETFVanguard Total Stock Market ETFUS equity ETFTracks a broad basket of publicly traded US companies.20%US total stock market
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFUS small-value equity ETFTargets smaller US companies with value characteristics.20%US small-cap value
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong-term Treasury ETFHolds US Treasury bonds with maturities of twenty years or more.20%Long-term Treasuries
SHYiShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETFShort-term Treasury ETFHolds short-duration US Treasury bonds.20%Short-term Treasuries
GLDSPDR Gold SharesSPDR Gold SharesGold ETFA listed fund designed to reflect the price of physical gold, before fund costs.20%Gold

REBALANCINGAnnual rebalancing to five equal 20% sleeves.

DATA WINDOWThe backtest automatically uses the first common EOD date of these ETF proxies; it is not a synthetic pre-ETF reconstruction.