PORTFOLIO COMPARISON / ONE VARIABLE

Golden Butterfly Portfolio Backtest

Backtest a Golden Butterfly Portfolio using a disclosed US ETF proxy: stocks, small value, long Treasuries, short Treasuries and gold at 20% each.

PortfolioCharts frameworkWell-known permanent-style allocationEqual-weight stocks, bonds and goldHistorical result available

HISTORICAL BACKTEST RESULT

60% SPY / 40% AGG vs Golden Butterfly

60% SPY / 40% AGG Golden Butterfly
2016-08-23 → 2026-07-31 · 2492 common sessions
60% SPY / 40% AGG$22,7528.6% annualized · -21.3% max drawdown
Golden Butterfly$15,1397.0% annualized · -19.8% max drawdown

Historical calculation from cached Marketstack EOD data. Annual rebalancing, $10,000 initial value, nominal USD before fees and taxes. The disclosed portfolio definitions—not an AI model—produce the result.

RUN THIS PORTFOLIO

Change the rule, then compare the new result.

Load this portfolio in Workspace →

WHAT TO COMPARE

Read the trade-off as a system.

  1. 01Ending value
  2. 02Maximum drawdown
  3. 03Sleeve contribution
  4. 04Start-date sensitivity

WHEN TO LOOK

Locate where the difference appeared.

First shared ETF observation onwardRate shocksEquity drawdownsGold-led periods

A useful comparison shows whether an advantage was broad or created by one unusually favorable period. Review the portfolio backtest methodology to understand how the same rules are applied across a shared data window.

PORTFOLIO RULE / DISCLOSED IMPLEMENTATION

Five-sleeve ETF proxy

The ETF choices are disclosed proxies for an allocation concept. A different small-value or cash proxy can change the result.

VTIVanguard Total Stock Market ETFVanguard Total Stock Market ETFUS equity ETFTracks a broad basket of publicly traded US companies.20%US total stock market
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFUS small-value equity ETFTargets smaller US companies with value characteristics.20%US small-cap value
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong-term Treasury ETFHolds US Treasury bonds with maturities of twenty years or more.20%Long-term Treasuries
SHYiShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETFShort-term Treasury ETFHolds short-duration US Treasury bonds.20%Short-term Treasuries
GLDSPDR Gold SharesSPDR Gold SharesGold ETFA listed fund designed to reflect the price of physical gold, before fund costs.20%Gold

REBALANCINGAnnual rebalancing to five equal 20% sleeves.

DATA WINDOWThe backtest automatically uses the first common EOD date of these ETF proxies; it is not a synthetic pre-ETF reconstruction.

STRATEGY CONTEXT

What this portfolio strategy means.

A short definition, the reason investors return to it, and the historical context behind the name. It is context for a backtest—not an investment recommendation.

What it is

The Golden Butterfly is a five-sleeve allocation concept: broad US stocks, small-cap value stocks, long-term Treasuries, short-term Treasuries, and gold, each at 20% in this disclosed ETF proxy. It deliberately combines assets intended to respond differently to economic growth, inflation, deflation, and changes in interest rates. This page makes every proxy and reset rule inspectable.

Why investors use it

People explore the Golden Butterfly because it aims for a smoother multi-asset experience than an all-equity portfolio while retaining a meaningful growth sleeve. The attraction is not a promise of the highest return; it is the possibility that no single economic environment dictates the entire result. A backtest is especially useful here because the strategy’s apparent stability depends on all five components.

Historical context

The allocation was developed and popularized in the modern portfolio-design community as a close relative of Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio, with an added small-value equity sleeve. It became widely discussed through Portfolio Charts. Exact implementations vary with the chosen stock, cash, Treasury, and gold proxies, so a historical claim about the name alone is not enough without showing the instruments used.