PORTFOLIO COMPARISON / ONE VARIABLE

Golden Butterfly vs Permanent Portfolio Comparison

Compare the Golden Butterfly and Permanent Portfolio through disclosed ETF proxies, then decompose the multiple allocation differences one at a time.

Classic allocation comparisonFrequently discussed defensive pairingAdds small-value exposure to Permanent PortfolioHistorical result available

HISTORICAL BACKTEST RESULT

Golden Butterfly vs Permanent Portfolio

Golden Butterfly Permanent Portfolio
2020-06-02 → 2026-07-31 · 1537 common sessions
Golden Butterfly$15,1397.0% annualized · -19.8% max drawdown
Permanent Portfolio$13,5165.0% annualized · -19.8% max drawdown

Historical calculation from cached Marketstack EOD data. Annual rebalancing, $10,000 initial value, nominal USD before fees and taxes. The disclosed portfolio definitions—not an AI model—produce the result.

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WHAT TO COMPARE

Read the trade-off as a system.

  1. 01Ending value
  2. 02Maximum drawdown
  3. 03Equity exposure
  4. 04Treasury and gold contribution

WHEN TO LOOK

Locate where the difference appeared.

Common ETF historyEquity stressRate shocksGold-led periods

A useful comparison shows whether an advantage was broad or created by one unusually favorable period. Review the portfolio backtest methodology to understand how the same rules are applied across a shared data window.

PORTFOLIO RULE / DISCLOSED IMPLEMENTATION

A deliberately multi-variable comparison

This page intentionally starts with a familiar head-to-head query, then routes the user to individual gold, equity and duration tests for interpretation.

VTIVanguard Total Stock Market ETFVanguard Total Stock Market ETFUS equity ETFTracks a broad basket of publicly traded US companies.20%Golden Butterfly equity sleeve
VBRVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFVanguard Small-Cap Value ETFUS small-value equity ETFTargets smaller US companies with value characteristics.20%Golden Butterfly small-value sleeve
TLTiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFLong-term Treasury ETFHolds US Treasury bonds with maturities of twenty years or more.20%Golden Butterfly long Treasury sleeve
SHYiShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETFiShares 1–3 Year Treasury Bond ETFShort-term Treasury ETFHolds short-duration US Treasury bonds.20%Golden Butterfly short Treasury sleeve
GLDSPDR Gold SharesSPDR Gold SharesGold ETFA listed fund designed to reflect the price of physical gold, before fund costs.20%Golden Butterfly gold sleeve

REBALANCINGBoth reference allocations use annual rebalancing. Load each preset independently in the Workspace before comparing them.

DATA WINDOWThe engine restricts each run to its common ETF history. It does not treat an allocation comparison as a causal one-variable experiment.

STRATEGY CONTEXT

What this portfolio strategy means.

A short definition, the reason investors return to it, and the historical context behind the name. It is context for a backtest—not an investment recommendation.

What it is

This is a head-to-head comparison of two named multi-asset frameworks. The Golden Butterfly uses five 20% sleeves, including a small-cap value allocation; the Permanent Portfolio uses four 25% sleeves. Several variables change together, so the result is a map of two complete rules, not proof that a single difference caused the observed gap.

Why investors use it

Readers often encounter both names while looking for a more resilient alternative to an all-equity allocation. A direct comparison is useful as a starting point because it makes the broad trade-off visible quickly: more equity breadth and value exposure on one side, a simpler four-asset structure on the other. It also identifies which question should be tested next, such as gold weight or Treasury duration.

Historical context

Both strategies belong to the modern all-weather portfolio conversation. The Permanent Portfolio is the older framework associated with Harry Browne; the Golden Butterfly later adapted its economic-diversification logic with an additional small-value sleeve. Their shared labels can obscure different ETF proxies and rebalance rules, so this page displays the actual implementation and links back to the individual strategy pages for narrower controlled tests.